Was

i calculate that even if AIB subs had exchanged their bonds for equity at par, they'd end up with about 10% at most -- and the state with perhaps a little under 90% but more than 80% -- less than now, but not significantly so;

it's not clear that this would cost the Irish tax payer any *money = this would depend on the future value of the stock; clearly, bank equity in countries where rule of law prevails will be priced higher than in countries where the government does whatever it likes; so I think I can't be too wrong :)