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Author: SanMiguel101 Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 54461  
Subject: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 23/08/2010 16:58
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In this article, the assumed YoY growth is 10%. How is that number reached in the calculation? It seems to be an arbitrary choice given that we can't know what the growth is going to be or is it based on earnigs growth?


Company XYZ is a slow-growing large firm that's currently trading for 301.8p and pays an annual dividend of 10.4p. Going forward, you expect the dividend to grow at an annualized rate of 6%, and consider the cost of equity (the required rate of return on the shares) to be 10.1%. From this, we calculate:
Share price = Current Dividend * (1+Growth Rate) / (Cost of Equity – Growth Rate); or
Share price = 10.40p * (1+0.06) / (0.101-0.06)
This gives us a fair value of 268.9p -- by our estimates, then, Company XYZ is overvalued by 32.9p.
But not many companies will be able to grow earnings and dividends at high rates in perpetuity -- over time, tougher competition and larger size makes high sustainable growth improbable -- so we need to develop a model from which we can project a high growth rate for a few years and over time slow that rate to a more reasonable assumption for perpetual growth.


http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2010...
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Author: TMFPhila Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13352 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 23/08/2010 19:31
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Hi SanMiguel101,

In this article, the assumed YoY growth is 10%. How is that number reached in the calculation? It seems to be an arbitrary choice given that we can't know what the growth is going to be or is it based on earnigs growth?

Well, Company XYZ was just an example so all the figures are made up, but here's a little more granularity on how you can get those figures you seek.

The example you cite is a one-stage dividend discount model as it assumes that the company is now quite mature and will grow at the rate of the overall economy from here on out.

This will not be applicable for most companies you'll analyze -- you'll typically want to use a two- or three-stage model (like the Tesco example further down in the article) because they can still grow at a higher rate than the economy for at least another 5-10 years.

The assumed growth rate you reference, I believe, is the cited 10.1% "cost of equity" figure, which isn't the same thing as the expected year-over-year return. The cost of equity is the rate at which you'll discount your expected dividends to obtain a present value.

You can, however, get a feel for a company's potential earnings growth rate by multiplying return on equity by its retention ratio (1 - dividend payout ratio). For example, Tesco's ROE is 16.96% and its dividend payout ratio is 41.6%, so 16.96% * (1 - 41.6%) = 9.9%.

The 9.9% figure is called the "sustainable growth rate" or the maximum growth rate the company can achieve without altering its capital structure (debt and equity mix).

Does this help at all? Valuation is always a complicated matter with a lot of vocabulary to learn.

Foolish best,

Todd Wenning
Fool analyst

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Author: alarmbells Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13386 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 24/08/2010 17:49
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For most cyclical HYP shares you should always factor in the possibility of a dividend slash every 10 years or so and a reduced growth rate from the 'slash point'.

Recessions do happen.

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Author: SanMiguel101 Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13387 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 24/08/2010 17:56
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Thanks.
Why would you discount your expected dividends? Is it to do with discounting by inflation?
Also, how is the ROE figure reached?
Dividend payout ratio, is this just dividend yield?

Yes, lots of extra vocab to get around :)

So, in valuing a dividend company, what should I really care about? In the Tesco example above, we reach 9.9% YoY growth so I could expect that if I bought at 400p, then next year the share price would be 440p and I would also have taken some dividends at the same time (all things being equal and the market/news not causing issues).

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Author: gcboo One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13390 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 24/08/2010 20:40
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Why would you discount your expected dividends? Is it to do with discounting by inflation?

Time value of money (TMV) - fundamental principle of finance ie $10 today is worth more than $10 in a year's time

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Author: SanMiguel101 Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13391 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 24/08/2010 22:34
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Company XYZ is a slow-growing large firm that's currently trading for 301.8p and pays an annual dividend of 10.4p. Going forward, you expect the dividend to grow at an annualized rate of 6%, and consider the cost of equity (the required rate of return on the shares) to be 10.1%. From this, we calculate:
Share price = Current Dividend * (1+Growth Rate) / (Cost of Equity – Growth Rate); or
Share price = 10.40p * (1+0.06) / (0.101-0.06)


Cost of equity is the value I'm not really understanding as it seems to be an arbitrary figure.


The cost of equity is the rate at which you'll discount your expected dividends to obtain a present value.

only reasonable value I can see is the current dividend yield minus RPI. Still unsure about the 10.1% figure?

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Author: mc2fool Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13393 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 25/08/2010 01:05
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Cost of equity is the value I'm not really understanding as it seems to be an arbitrary figure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_equity

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Author: gcboo One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13400 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 25/08/2010 12:03
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Time value of money (TMV)

Whoops, just noticed the typo - meant to write TVM

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Author: SanMiguel101 Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13418 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 25/08/2010 15:11
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Cost of equity is the value I'm not really understanding as it seems to be an arbitrary figure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_equity

It's more the "How do you get to the expected equity appreciation" value?
It seems like just picking COE near 10% is as good as doing detailed sums.
Isn't there a better way we could use the expected earnings growth as the expected share price next year?

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Author: SanMiguel101 Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13422 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 25/08/2010 15:27
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The other way is:
COE = Market Risk Premium * Equity Beta + Riskless rate (bonds)
But, how do we get to the market risk premium?

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Author: TMFPhila Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13425 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 25/08/2010 16:26
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Hi SanMiguel101, et al.

Lots of questions here, so I'll try to be as concise as possible.

Q: Why do we use the cost of equity to discount expected dividends?

A: Because dividends are equity-based cash flows, as opposed to firm-based cash flows (payments to both debt holders and shareholders)

Q: What is the cost of equity?

A: It measures the *equity* risk in a business, as opposed to the cost of capital, which measures the overall risk in the business.

Q: How do we calculate cost of equity?

A: There are a number of ways to do it. The most widely used is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which is stated as:

Cost of equity = risk-free rate + beta (risk premium)

Where risk-free rate = typically the 10-year gilt rate
Beta = a regression of returns on a share against returns on a broad equity market index (i.e. FTSE 100 or FTSE All-Share). For example, a beta of 1.2 means that it has historically been 20% more volatile than the market.
Risk premium = the premium investors demand for investing in equities, relative to the risk-free rate (this can change over time)

The risk premium is (expected return of risky asset - risk-free rate). For larger companies, the risk premium is traditionally in the 4-5% range. In December 2008, when things were really hairy, it was between 6-7%. Smaller companies will demand a bigger risk premium (perhaps 6-7% in normal periods).

So, for example, let's say we're analyzing a large company and the 10-year gilt is 3.2%, the share's beta is 0.8, and the equity risk premium is 5%. The cost of equity would be 3.2% + 0.8 (5%) or 7.2%.

Another quick way to calculate cost of equity is to find its cost of debt (what a company's longer term bonds, if it has any, are currently yielding) and add 3-4% on top of that rate.

Hope this helps. If you're really interested in valuation, I recommend reading NYU finance professor, Aswath Damodaran's books -- The Dark Side of Valuation (http://amzn.to/99JmYd) and Investment Valuation (http://amzn.to/a6STT0).

Foolish best,

Todd Wenning
Fool analyst

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Author: SanMiguel101 Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13432 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 25/08/2010 17:51
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Thanks.
So, let's take Halfords as an example:
COE = 5% * 0.63 + bonds = 6.35%

Share price = Current Dividend * (1+Growth Rate) / (Cost of Equity – Growth Rate)
= 23.12 * (1+0.10) / (0.0635 - 0.10)
= 25.43 / -0.0365
= infinity
1 year growth rate of stock is 10% inc. in dividend but should we go further out than this?
So, Halfords is cheap at whatever price
?

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Author: TMFPhila Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13436 of 54461
Subject: Re: Valuing dividend shares? Date: 25/08/2010 19:28
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Hi SanMiguel101,

Let's move this discussion over to the Value Shares board.

I think it's more appropriate there: http://boards.fool.co.uk/value-shares-50094.aspx

Foolish best,

Todd Wenning

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