Tom,In total Ophirs net increase in discovered gas is 736 mmbblsoe.All this has happened for an increase of less than 10% in share price!If I may correct you on one point. Jodari was announced as a discovery on 26th March, 2012 and the placing announcement @ 495p was two days later. Besides that, there are various ways of looking at this. From my perspective, there was a bit of a drilling hiatus with Ophir through most of 2011. In the second half of last year the SP oscillated between about 230p and 280p. The 2012/13 drilling program got underway with the spudding of the Top Hole Section of Mzia-1 on Jan 1st, 2012 when the SP was about 300p. Maybe the starting price of your SP analysis really ought to be, lets say, about 275p? Tells rather a different story! The SP has in fact risen strongly and relentlessly throughout most of the year in response to the series of discoveries you've listed. And it's only with today's less than stellar result (vs prognosis) that the SP has fallen back. I'd suggest Ophir's SP is "up with events".Maybe today's fall was overdone. Maybe not. Today's well result was a bit disappointing (by Ophir standards): 0.5TCF to 2.0TCF "In Place" vs pre-drill 3.1TCF "Recoverable Resource" the shortfall attributed to higher water saturation 49% vs 25% pre-drill and the failure of the Albian secondary target to come in. The higher water saturation will reduce prospectivity in the upper cretaceous. Reservoir quality wasn't as good (as the tertiary) with interbedded sands and siltstones. At the end of the day the cretaceous is not looking quite as good as everyone thought. Hence the SP re-action.Nothing to worry about for long term holders as there's more to come from Tanzania and elsewhere in Ophir's potfolio.xx
© Copyright 1998-2013, The Motley Fool Limited. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only.The Motley Fool, Fool, and the "Fool" logo are registered trademarks of The Motley Fool, Inc.Place of Reg: England & Wales. Company Reg No: 3736872. VAT Reg No: 945 6990 68. Registered Office: 5th Floor, 60 Charlotte Street London W1T 2NU.
Page load time and server: