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Author: stargazer57 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 12179  
Subject: Re: Cannon & Tonks Date: 11/12/2006 12:45
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swynn102

It is such a shame that you go to all this trouble using out of date motality tables. If you test current annuity rates using what was known about mortality when the 1992 tables were published, you will get nonsense.

At the very least you have to add the medium cohort improvements.

For even better results you will start with the 00 series tables, add the medium cohort improvements and allow for some underlying minimum rate of longevity improvement. This is the approach followed in a very recent assessment of the relative value of various equity release products by Watson Wyatt (Financial Services Consumer Panel Report on the value of equity release products to UK consumers http://www.fs-cp.org.uk/pdf/ww_3dec06.pdf )

see p42
Mortality
- Male PMA00 + Medium Cohort with minimum improvements of 1% pa
- Female PFA00 + Medium Cohort with minimum improvements of 0.75% pa

I believe these projections are similar to those used by insurance companies in their annual valautions.

Unfortunately these tables are not published in a form that can be taken off the shelf. There would need to be a large number of such tables published and they would be constantly changing. There are software packages available that can generate them, but I expect the cost would be prohibitive for an individual. Otherwise you will have to find a friendly actuary with access to such a package to generate the mortality rates for you.

Stargazer
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