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Author: TaurusTheBull Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3261  
Subject: Some thoughts I had today Date: 23/01/2012 12:29
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Hi,

As someone who doesn't keep a diary, I thought it might be a good idea to textualise (?) some of todays's thought processes. Here's a brief summary, in no particular order:-

1. This is primarily an investment board, so here's an investment thought. Unless my memory fails me, I've never bought shares in a FTSE 100 company, until I saw Tesco getting sold off nearly 25% on sales down a lot less than that.

I was very surprised! As a predominantly small cap. investor, I'm used to such falls, but couldn't understand why the market seemed to react in this way. So I bought a bunch at 319p, and as I type this, it seems that selling today would bag me a free supply of Tesco Cheese and Onion sarnies for the next few years...

2. Following on from 1, I find selling more difficult than buying. With buying, my rationale is to identify a company that appears to be oversold, in the short- or medium-term, look for an appropriate entry point (based on sentiment, newsflow, share price chart, and fundamentals), and then pile in.

But I generally don't have such an systematic exit strategy, because I suppose one gets suckered into a false sense of security when share prices are rising; plus, I am not very good at trading. An area for improvement.

3. I've been to a few countries, and I always take the "visa approach" when trying to appraise a particular country. That is, I think government warnings are over-played (we all want to cover our a***s), but I also think that, the harder a country makes it to get a visa must say something about travelling in that country.

For example, it is very hard to get information about African countries, and that equates, for people who have been there (outside of trips to Kenya and South Africa), to what is a chaotic and un-predicatable continent.

My favourite "continent" is South America, with free and easy visas (for UK passport holders). But I can also understand why some people may want the challenge and uncertainty of "real travel". In that respect, Western Africa (outside of Gambia) seems to be the Holy Grail!

It's often hard to get up-to-date information on countries. A lot of websites don't date their information.

Despite the negative Western Press, I was recently looking at a trip to Iran, but the requirement to itemise travel before even being considered for a visa put me off. I'm open to any culture, but the politicians, unfortunately, always hold sway.

4. A very close family member died last year, primarily of lung cancer, but secondarily because the cancer had spread. Get any persistant coughs checked out pronto, as the NHS is very slow to react, regarding diagnostic scans. That applies to all problems.

If you've paid your taxes, don't be shy about getting the benefits. I'm convinced the NHS operates, budget-wise, an ageist policy (less priority treatment for older folks). And most people can forget getting any reasonable treatment at weekends!

5. I often find that thoughts occur to me after I've had a few intoxicants. Could this a spur to writers (judging by what I've read in the past, definitely!), and can sobriety offer the same thoughts and insights?

6. The "Euro crisis" seems to be playing havoc with investment ideas. Is this a new thing, or should we view the potential (likely ?) default of Greece as an investment no-no? Or is this rather an extreme example of markets climbing a wall of worry?

I find it ironic that the US economy seems to be doing well (in the circumstances), despite that country having, by a country mile, the World's biggest ever debt. One saying is "the bigger they are, the harder they fall", but in investment terms, the dollar seems second only in vogue to gold, the fondness for which is understandable, if speculative.

7. It seems to me that the Western World has taken on too much debt over the past 40 years, will never re-pay it (as is already being shown by Greek writedowns), and that it's citizens, by and large, don't know the meaning of "austerity". That word, like "poverty", is very subjective. Can you imagine having a clothes ration card (1946)?

Try telling that to the Facebook generation, and they won't believe you! They won't!!

Cheers
Taurus
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