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Author: globalarbtrader Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 317476  
Subject: Property prediction contest and Christmas Bonus Date: 09/12/2010 09:43
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Recommendations: 405
Lest we forget


Well it has been an interesting year with some very strong figures in the first few months continuing 2009's momentum making it look like the bulls would have it. Then we saw a spring slump as approvals reduced further from anaemic levels; a bit of a pick up over the summer but the shocking September figure made it look like the bears would be in with a shout. In the end prices basically flatlined although it does look like momentum is downwards.

The November index has come in at £164,708. On the previous year, using the original figure of £167,440 that represents a fall of 1.76%. So the result is quite close, but I am please to announce that the closest guess was for a fall of 2.43798% made by rscann.


Well done! This represented a forecast error of just 0.67% which is pretty good, or about £1100 in money terms. For interest the median guess of the board, -3.29% was actually fairly respectable in terms of the typical standard deviation of the HBOS index.

With clubnosey a very close second with a guess of 1.05%. In % terms they were only 0.04% apart, in money terms just £64 apart. Also a very close third was whitefriars with a slightly too pessmistic -2.53%.

I will attach a full leaderboard as a reply to this post and also look forward to endless statistical analysis; to whet your appetite the top 10 is below. The final figure is the absolute error in £.

Now for the christmas bonus; I will pay an extra £1 on top of the original £1000 to Oxfam for every rec this post gets before 9am on the 16th December.

1 rscann -2.44% £163,576.39 Oxfam £1,131.61
2 clubnosey -1.05% £165,903.53 Great ormond street £1,195.53
3 whitefriars -2.53% £163,428.81 Bridge Trust £1,279.19
4 2Meter2Bear -2.78% £163,000.79 Survival international £1,707.21
5 naughtyweasel -2.99% £162,659.23 Great ormond street £2,048.77
6 Fr4dge2 -3.14% £162,396.73 Sightsavers £2,311.27
7 ianevans -3.14% £162,396.68 N/A £2,311.32
8 petebeale -3.25% £162,214.92 Sane £2,493.08
9 hopgarden -3.29% £162,156.24 Demelza House Hospice for Children. £2,551.76
10 drowsy -3.29% £162,142.07 Shelter £2,565.93
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