It isn't very complex, so I'd suggest that people might like to make their own calculations for Vietnam (and not bother commenting on the boards).......:

a) VN 2P reserves now at 125.7mn boe(p17 of interims presentation, up 25mn boe from end 2007)
b) Further reserves upside from TGT appraisal/development wells can also be expected, as well as perhaps seeing a fresh reserves assessment at the point of final project approval itself? (it looks as if less than 300mnbbls gross have yet been included in the 2P figure)
c) Stake of 24.8% in 16-1 and 20% in 9-2, with additional year 1 cash flows recovering costs, including those paid on behalf of PV and the SOCO VN minority (+ interest at 9% in the latter case)
d) TGD discovery unappraised - perhaps 300+mn boe of oil/condensate/gas reserves net to SOCO VN? What would the most aggressive potential buyer risk these at? 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%??
e) M&A players appear to be using long-term oil prices of $70-85 currently, which is perhaps slightly higher than a year ago. You'll recall some discussion at the AGM to the effect that $20-30 per bbl in NAV terms was a reasonable figure (though doubtless the top end of that range is unlikely in current circs, even though long futures have stabilised in the mid $80s)
f) Vietnam oil grades are generally at a $5-7 premium to WTI; and, per Oilretire's latest posts, VN is short of gas. Gas prices are likely to be set soon for CNV.
g) Figure out what the above might be worth in USD [lob in the 7.4mn bbls of 2P in Thailand too, if you like, just for fun], convert the proceeds into Sterling at the current spot (say 1.50, even though it is lower this morning) and then divide by the number of shares in issue (74.95mn) [plus outstanding warrants and options if you wish, including conversion rights]

Then (assuming you already own the shares)......

.....go pour yourself a wee dram*, relax and wait........

;-)

ee

[I won't be elaborating further, except to correct any errors or omissions, so don't bother asking]

*yes, I know it was "a bit early" at the time of posting, but its a special occasion ;-)

Morning, ee

.....go pour yourself a wee dram*, relax and wait........

*yes, I know it was "a bit early" at the time of posting, but its a special occasion ;-)


Your actual birthday, by any chance?????


KMcK

Your actual birthday, by any chance?????

Nope. Good try though :-)

You haven't done the calculations yet yourself then?....Off to Lidl with you for a bottle of their finest Bruichladdich ;-)

ee

The Soco board is nine tomorrow.

FK

*yes, I know it was "a bit early" at the time of posting, but its a special occasion ;-)

Got a message from someone in the know that a deal to sell SOCO for 3600p per share is about to be announced? :-)

*yes, I know it was "a bit early" at the time of posting, but its a special occasion ;-)

Got a message from someone in the know that a deal to sell SOCO for 3600p per share is about to be announced? :-)

No....for the avoidance of doubt!

Off to Lidl with you for a bottle of their finest Bruichladdich ;-)

Lidl's equivalent is Bruckladdie

NH

ee,

a)+ b)= 140mn boe
d) = 20% or 30% = 60-90 mn boe say 75mn
e) assume $18=£12
g) call it 220mn including Thailand. £220*12 mn = £2640/78 close to £34 quid per share.

repobear

Take £10 per share off for market conditions and I think you are about right.

But not until Spring next year...

JonnyT

Take £10 per share off for market conditions

Please explain relevance.

Just because the stock market is full of ****wits who can't operate a calculator, doesn't mean to say that the whole of the oil industry has to expect a discount on a project that already has a load of upside potential (from appraising/developing TGD). We only need to sell the assets once - which means that it is only the highest bidder that matters, not the fifth coverbidder twice removed!

ee

So go on ee, name your price.

I'll say less than £27 per share for Vietnam if it's sold in the next 6 weeks (your timescale)

JonnyT

ee

Unless its your wedding anniversary, then I'm guessing today is special because its the first time your conservatively calculated NAV has exceeded £40... it may be that I have the principal of my comment correct, but we're talking £50 not £40 :-)

My apologies for putting no effort into working through your calculation but am having to devote an excessive amount of time providing info to various kitchen designers. Yawn :-(

Cheers, Martin