In between the demands of earning a living and catching up a little here, I've been musing how this might be simply summarized.

What happened?

Having finally managed to get the well drilled, with all the pain and anguish that was involved, we finally went ahead and tested the lower of the two zones of interest. It wasn't a particularly high-tech test and it really didn't have to be: the presence of hydrocarbons was evident from drilling and logging and so the aim would have been to produce the well, let it stabilize and get some flow measurements.

As we know, this didn't quite happen and SIA are telling us that they did flow gas and condensate to surface. They must be feeling incredibly frustrated. Rather like those unfortunate people on Dragons' Den who have a fabulous product and take the time to set up a demo for investors only to see Theo Paphitis find a way of breaking the pre-production model, they believe they've got something here but were unable to provide clinching proof.

Theo Paphitis? What did he do?

Well, he didn't do anything. But there may have been some cack-handedness. There does now seem to be the suggestion that the failure to get sustained flow was less to do with well damage per se (remember I suggested that perhaps solids were being produced) and more to do with a heavy fluid downhole preventing the well from coming in. A kind of equilibrium between the well and the fluid may have resulted in the well 'surging' back-and-forth without actually getting flow. Rather like that unpleasant feeling when you really want to burp but can't quite make it...

The shocker is that the heavy fluid, which would originally have been left to provide some protection against a blowout, may have reacted chemically with the production fluids put into the well prior to testing. This resulted in something heavier and/or more viscous and thus held the well back. Now, this is all supposition based on half-facts from a guy sitting several thousand miles away from the well and could be wrong, but if it's close to the truth then (yet another) sub-contractor needs his bottom kicked.

passinthru may be able to provide more coherent thoughts on this than I can.

OK, now what?

As luck would have it, we have a second shot at the Dragons' Den (albeit a slightly different product) with DST II across the upper zone of interest. This should be far more straightforward; there are a fewer potential complications with this one, as the company are suggesting. Of course, nothing is a complete shoo-in - particularly as far as this well is concerned - but all would seem to be set fair for this one.

And after that?

There has been some pretty clear pointers that SIA are going to have another tilt at TGD (I have to say much of the press seems to have got itself confused about this, some even appearing to suggest the well will be re-drilled!) and that seems to make sense to me. Certainly a lot should have been learned from this dismal experience to bring any future well back within more realistic timelines. SW10's Law is affected by a number of factors, but it seems to me that there has been a surprising amount of human error on this well, mostly arising from contractors as far as I can see.

They must have been spitting blood at Soco Towers: the frustration must just be immense. I'm sure it would be an attractive - if unrealistic - option to change out the contractors and maybe even the rig.

Show me the money

I'm beginning to subscribe to the view that the City's price is becoming less important now. The aim now must be to get a couple of the Dragons interested and not worry too much about those of us in the TV audience. The detailed numbers, graphs and squiggly lines will allow a knowledgeable Dragon to see the potential for what it really is, notwithstanding the effects of Theo's fat fingers.

If the end of the pitch to the Den is slated for the year-end, then I reckon that they may just be able to get one more well in on TGD before starting the negotiation with interested Dragons. That will take away some of the perceived risk and allow our guys to claim a few more quid.

SWDen