Comparing these figures it looks like Labour did fairy well compared to the Tories up until 2008. But then the 2008 did see Lehmans, NRK etcFrankly I have no idea why you believe that unless you are purely trying to make some political point. Lets overlay the economic cycle to the data:1980: -3.965% Recession1981: -1.991% Recession1982: -1.984% 1983: -3.300%1984: -2.735%1985: -2.083%1986: -1.928%1987: -1.955%1988: -0.884%1989: -1.549%1990: -1.865%1991: -2.677% Recession1992: -4.648% Recession1993: -5.378%1994: -5.207%1995: -4.519%1996: -3.474%1997: -1.492%1998: -0.198%1999: +0.607%2000: +0.768%2001: -0.526%2002: -2.397%2003: -3.485%2004: -4.026%2005: -3.825%2006: -3.525%2007: -4.035%2008: -6.510% Recession2009: -8.990% Recession2010: -7.783%2011: -6.276%It takes 5-6 years after a recession to bring a structural deficit down to more reasonable and manageable levels.So going into the 1980s recession the structural deficit was quite low (I believe less than 1% although this IMF data doesn't go back that far) and widened to close to 4% before being managed back down over the following years. Going into the early 1990's recession the structural deficit was quite low at 1.8% and then widened to 5.3% after the recession before being managed down over the following years. Going into the recent recession the structural deficit was 4% and had been running at between 3.5%-4% through 5yrs of strong growth when we should have been managing it downwards! There's quite clearly a significant difference between this and previous cycles. Even if we had experienced a more average depth recession we would have seen our deficit blow out to 7.5-8% given this starting point. However the depth of the recession is also questionable as although you and a number of other posters are keen to blame the banks for it's depth it would have been shallower if we'd been in a position to provide a decent fiscal stimulus. So when you look at the stimulus given as a % of GDP for the G20 it looks like this:Saudi +9.4%US +5.9%China +4.8%Spain +4.5%Germany +3.4%Canada +2.8%Korea +2.7%South Africa +2.6%Indonesia +2.5%Japan +2.2%Australia +1.8%Russia +1.7%UK +1.5%Argentina +1.3%Mexico +1.0%France +0.7%Brazil +0.5%India +0.5%Italy +0.3%Turkey 0%We were only able to provide the minimal stimulus to our economy as our deficit was already way too high. The only countries in the G20 that gave a lower stimulus than us were either emerging markets that didn't really need a stimulus or Italy and France - Italy was in exactly the same situation as us and simply didn't have the money and France had a much shallower recession than we did. We had one of the highest deficits in the G20 and one of the lowest stimulus packages.So we went into recession with a structural deficit way too high and which we'd been running at post recession type levels through years of strong growth. We hit the recession and the deficit ballooned, leaving us unable to provide a decent stimulus and resulting in a deeper and longer recession than should have been the case. The ballooning deficit saw debt climb rapidly - accelerating the trend that had started in 2001 and by 2013 the UK is forecast to be one of the most indebted countries in the world with only really Japan and various crisis struck countries above us. B
© Copyright 1998-2013, The Motley Fool Limited. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only.The Motley Fool, Fool, and the "Fool" logo are registered trademarks of The Motley Fool, Inc.Place of Reg: England & Wales. Company Reg No: 3736872. VAT Reg No: 945 6990 68. Registered Office: 5th Floor, 60 Charlotte Street London W1T 2NU.
Page load time and server: