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Recommendations: 3
BoA/Merrill note today:
It appears that the legislation Ireland has undoubtedly been preparing, originally as a backstop to encourage Anglo Irish investors to accept a coercive and confiscatory exchange, will now potentially have a “wider application” (to use the terms of the Irish Prime Minister). We take this to mean that subordinated debt holders of Irish banks could find the market value of their bonds being dictated by a potentially coercive and confiscatory exchange. Whilst we would expect the stronger banks like Bank of Ireland to haircut less,
>>>>uncertainty remains with respect to the valuation of the subordinated bonds and will likely continue to pressure subordinated bonds, especially the perpetuals<<<<
I see no hurry to buy BOI if the above is true. Awaiting further details. Even after that, there should be time to get aboard. Let's hope the worst that can happen is a cpn suspension and/or LLoyds-style Coco exchange offer. So far it has paid to stand aside until the fog lifts.
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