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http://boards.fool.co.uk/they-only-have-50-of-nyuni-oops-yes-of-12021996.aspx
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| Subject: Re: Half Yearly Report | Date: 27/08/2010 14:55 | |
| Author: Cludgie | Number: 6937 of 8025 | |
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They only have 50% of Nyuni... Oops! Yes of course. That would take my revenue finger-in-the-air guess down to about $11m net to Aminex. You may also be right about the mix being more weighted to industrial use than power generation (I can't remember either way), but I think it's better to be conservative about these things, especially given that we have no idea what the price of gas will be in 2 years time. Using the higher $9 per mcf implies that most of the gas won't be used for power generation - I'm sure Orca would have something to say about that as they will be operating the gas plant! In the report Aminex state that the current average price obtained in the USA is $5 per mcf - do you really think it would be more in Tanzania? So my revised estimate for annual revenues would therefore be: $5 x 20,000 x 300 x 50% = $15m This is still a signicant amount for Aminex and would certainly fund a lot of drilling. What I'm less certain about is how much of that would translate into profits. The infrastructure is mostly in place and requires a relatively short pipeline and the upgrading of existing facilities and Songo Songo. Oh yes, and there are the management share options to pay for - $810,000 this year. (:-o) Anyway, for me the shares are going back in the bottom drawer for the time being. Regards, Cludgie |
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